Building the Team: Ladies Figure Skating

We’re just under 200 days until the start of the Sochi Olympics, believe me, I’m counting it down. With that in mind, people don’t normally start learning about who’s competing for the US (or any country) until just before the games begin. Everybody’s sort of like, “Yeah, I’ve been following Gabby Douglas for years!” When in reality, they read about her in People Magazine three days before her event. That’s not a bad thing. Most of these sports aren’t overly relevant in non-Olympic years, so no one should really expect the general public to know who these athletes are. However, I’m going to try to remove some of this unknown by providing an overview of the top contenders attempting to qualify in the major (glamour?) sports. It’ll be like the preview of the preview.

The US will qualify three skaters to the Olympic ladies singles final. The team will be selected based on the results of the US Figure Skating Championships in January, and there is a sizable contingent of skaters duking it out for those spots. Here are the most notable, along with my prediction of who will be on the US squad in Sochi.

Ashley Wagner

The one constant in American ladies singles figure skating (mouthfuls on mouthfuls) since Vancouver has been the German-born Wagner. The two-time and reigning US National Champion finished fifth at this year’s World Championships and would be a shoo-in to lead the team to Sochi if the squad was set today. However, we’re not picking the team in July, and the fickle nature of a one-off competition for qualification means there is no margin for error. Wagner’s general consistency and recent results (2012 Four Continents Champ, 2012 World Grand Prix Final Silver) definitely makes her the favorite to earn a ticket to the Russian coast, but nothing is guaranteed. Her recent coaching shake-up is a bit of a cause for concern, but I fully expect Wagner and her fantastic excited faces (#WagnerFace? Has somebody started that?) to be in Sochi.

Gracie Gold

The aptly named Gold has been on a fairly meteoric rise since finishing sixth at 2011 Midwest Sectional Championships as a junior. For those that don’t know; sectionals are what qualifies you to nationals, meaning Gold wasn’t even one of the best five junior skaters in her region, much less the entire country, just two years ago.  Since then, Gold has been, well, golden. Her first trip to nationals as a junior in 2012 saw her score the highest total ever by a junior skater at that competition (guess you could say she set the gold standard).  A second place finish at junior worlds followed and Gold started to get “next big thing” hype. She solidified that billing with a spectacular free skate performance at this year’s US Championship, which lifted her to a second place finish and a spot at worlds. Gold finished sixth in Canada and seems poised for another breakout campaign when her season starts in October. While not as sure a bet as Wagner, Gold’s upward trajectory means she’ll likely be going for gold (I couldn’t resist) in February.

Mirai Nagasu

Nagasu looked like one for the future when she captured the US Title in 2008 as a 14-year-old. A fourth place finish in Vancouver came soon after and Nagasu seemed primed to leap even further into figure skating’s elite in this current quadrennial. Unfortunately for the California native, it just hasn’t come together. Nagasu has found the podium in various Grand Prix events, but finished seventh at the last two US Championships. A return to top form will be necessary if the former national champion wants one of the three qualifying spots. Nagasu’s obvious talent and Olympic experience could put her on the team. Her apparent temperamental nature could keep her off it.

Agnes Zawadski

The positives? A-Zad (They’ll all have bad/uncreative nicknames from me by December) is a two-time US Senior Bronze Medalist (2012, 2013). The Illinois native also won the 2010 US Junior Title and defeated Gold to win the US Classic title last September. The key for Zawadski (and pretty much every skater) is combining a great short program with a mistake free long program. A-Zad’s all about the short program, sitting in first and second place after the short at the last two US Championships. The negative? She had the seventh best long program at both those competitions. That just can’t happen in January, with every skater presumably at her best.  In the previous section about Nagasu, I noted her “obvious talent” as one of the things that could propel her to an Olympic birth. Look, we’re at the top levels of skating here. Everybody is talented. Yes, some are more skilled than others. Sasha Cohen’s best day is better than Rachel Flatt’s ever will be, but Flatt was in Vancouver and Cohen was not. Consistency over two programs will be a gigantic deciding factor for who makes it to Sochi. Zadwaski needs to find it, or she’ll be sitting at home.

Caroline Zhang

Since dominating the junior circuit in the 06-07 season, Zhang has been a picture of inconsistency as a senior skater.  She’s gone through four coaching changes since 2009 and finished everywhere from third to 12^th at the US Championships since then. Zhang is a two time bronze medalist at the Four Continents Championships, but she’s a bit of an unknown quantity as we move towards Sochi. In my mind, it would be a minor upset if she made it to Russia.

Christina Gao

If success was measured by finishing fifth at US Championships, Gao would be the greatest skater of all time. The Harvard sophomore (she apparently took a full course load as a freshman while still training) has never really had an unbelievable result anywhere, but rather is the picture of spectacular consistency. She’s placed fifth at four straight US Championships, which indicates that Gao is no slouch, but also not good enough to overcome the variety of talented skaters that occupied the four spots above her.  Well, that was until she experienced the all-important “breakout year” in 2012. Gao grabbed the silver medal at the Skate America Grand Prix event and placed fourth at Four Continents, the highest finish of any American. She, like Gold, is on the upswing, and will be right there for that third spot.

Alissa Czisny

Qualifying for the Olympics is an unforgiving process. A competitor has to peak at exactly the right time once every four years. You could go through the record books of every sport and find athletes who happened to reach their potential in the middle of an Olympic cycle, becoming elite at the “wrong” time. Age, health, coaching and a multitude of other extenuating circumstances affect this process.  

Alissa Czisny is the epitome of this scenario. A staple of the American skating scene since 2006, Czisny is a two time national champion and a four-time World Championships participant, notching a career high fifth place in 2011. Even with all that success, Czisny’s legacy seems to be trending towards unfortunate disappointment rather than consistent achievement. The now 26-year old was one of the favorites to make the Olympic team in 2010, but faded to 10^th in the US Championships. Czisny considered retirement, but instead rebounded for two straight solid seasons in 2011 and 2012. However, doctors discovered a torn labrum in Czisny’s left shoulder in May of 2012, which put her back on the comeback trail. A valiant attempt to return at this year’s US Championships fell short when Czisny dislocated her hip in a competition just before nationals.  She will once again seek a spot on the Olympic team in January, and would have to be considered the sentimental favorite. Czisny will probably be the oldest skater in Boston, but honestly might be the least complete. Every skater that competes at nationals will partly define her legacy by the performance she puts on. Alissa Czisny will be fighting to change how she's already being remembered. 

Others to Watch: Courtney Hicks, Yasmin Siraj, Hannah Miller, Polina Edmunds

From Left: Gold, Wagner, Zawadski, Hicks 

Prediction: Wagner, Gold, Zawadski

I think this is a pretty hard team to predict, especially with the 2013-2014 skating season still to begin. That will give everybody a better idea of who's rounding into form, and give all of the skaters an opportunity to get hurt. I don’t mean to be negative; it’s just the nature of the beast. For now though, Wagner is the best skater is the United States and seems primed for an Olympic birth. Gold’s continued improvement and overall demeanor (Her Twitter game is on point, yes, I know that means nothing) should put her on this team. The third spot is anybody’s guess, but I think Zawaksi will outlast Nagasu, Gao and maybe Hicks for it. Nothing would make me happier than seeing a resurgent Czisny grab the spot, but I don’t know enough about her form to go out on that limb. Rachael Flatt, an Olympian in 2010, seems done with the sport. I couldn’t find any confirmation that she was even contemplating a comeback. Keep an eye on Hicks, who will compete in her first season as a senior this year. She had a fairly decorated junior career and could surprise some people.

This is a weird time for USA Figure Skating. Except for Wagner, and perhaps Gold, there are really no known quantities on the US team. But hey, that means we’ve got the potential for some major drama come January. In a sport like figure skating, one that embraces elements of theater as part of the experience, that’s all you could ever ask for.

Next in this series: Snowboarding.